Climate Action Progress Comparison China, EU and US

A report released last Tuesday by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) reveals that 44% of experts from academia and industry anticipate China’s CO2 emissions peaking by 2025 at the latest. This marks a significant increase in confidence compared to last year’s survey, where only 21% of respondents shared this view. Furthermore, optimism about China reducing its dependence on coal has increased as well. When asked if the experts believed China’s coal consumption had already peaked, 36% of experts responded affirmatively, compared to just 20% in the previous year. Moreover, China is also a global leader in clean energy investment. Clean energy contributed a record 11.4 trillion yuan (£154.4 billion) to China’s economy last year, making it the largest driver of GDP growth. Over the past two years, China has prioritized a shift toward high-tech, green industries, often referred to as the “new three”: solar panels, electric vehicles, and batteries. These sectors have attracted significant investment and emerged as pivotal drivers of economic growth. As China advances its transition, the benefits of this shift are becoming increasingly evident. However, despite these positive developments, the country is not necessarily on track to reach its climate goals. China has pledged to peak its carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. This commitment is supported by targets to reduce CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP by over 65% from 2005 levels by 2030 and to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 25%. Additionally, China is expanding its forest stock to enhance carbon sequestration. These efforts align with its broader strategy to transition to a green and high-tech economy, as outlined by the International Energy Agency.

China and its climate change progress

Even though China’s CO2 emissions might peak a earlier than expected, it seems unlikely that the country would reach their climate goals, according to experts. Following data from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), which is an independent tool that evaluates countries’ climate policies and commitments against the Paris Agreement goals, China’s overall rating is highly insufficient.

The CAT rates China’s climate commitments as “Highly Insufficient,” meaning current efforts are far from adequate to limit global warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C. China’s NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution) target against modeled domestic pathways is rated “Highly Insufficient,” aligning with a warming scenario of 4°C, while its policies and actions, as well as its NDC targets against fair share responsibility, are rated “Insufficient,” corresponding to a <3°C world. The country’s net-zero target, set for before 2060, is rated as “Poor” in terms of comprehensiveness, and contributions from land use and forestry are labeled “Not Significant.” Climate finance has not been assessed, leaving a key aspect of China’s climate action unexamined. These ratings highlight the urgent need for China to enhance its climate ambition, especially given its position as the world’s largest CO₂ emitter. However, it is important to note that the CAT only assesses the policies for the Paris Agreement goals, whereas China has set different goals for itself. Some experts argue that China’s less ambitious climate goals could be justified with their level of development.

China is the world’s largest emitter of CO₂, producing over 10 billion tonnes annually, which accounts for over a quarter of global emissions. However, on a per capita basis, the United States leads among major economies, with each person emitting approximately 14.3 tonnes of CO₂ per year. In comparison, China’s per capita emissions are around 8.4 tonnes, while the EU averages 5.6 tonnes per person. It is also crucial to note that a significant portion of China’s emissions results from manufacturing goods that are consumed in regions such as the EU and the U.S., complicating direct comparisons. This highlights the need to consider both production and consumption emissions when evaluating global CO₂ responsibilities.

The European Union and its climate change progress

The European Union has committed to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, as part of its Green Deal. This initiative aims to make Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. It remains ambiguous if the EU will reach its goals, as different experts predict different outcomes. According to the EU’s official climate action progress page, net greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 3% in 2022, marking a 30-year downward trend and a total reduction of 32.5% since 1990. Although emissions have consistently declined and 2022 levels remained below those of 2019, projections from Member States indicate that the EU is not on track to meet its 2030 target of removing 310 million tonnes of CO₂ annually. Achieving the 2030 goal of a 55% net emissions reduction and climate neutrality by 2050 will require the EU and its Member States to accelerate emissions reductions and enhance implementation efforts significantly.

The CAT rates the EU’s overall climate commitments as “Insufficient,”. The EU’s policies and actions, as well as its NDC targets both domestically and against its fair share responsibility, are rated “Insufficient,” aligning with a warming scenario of under 3°C. Climate finance is also labeled as “Insufficient,” reflecting gaps in financial support for global climate initiatives. While the EU’s net-zero target of 2050 is rated as “Acceptable” in terms of comprehensiveness, contributions from land use and forestry are considered “Not Significant,” underscoring the need for enhanced ambition and implementation across multiple sectors to meet its climate goals.

The United States and its climate change progress

The United States has set a goal to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030, aligning with the Biden administration’s broader ambition to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Federal government operations aim for a 65% emissions reduction by 2030, transitioning to carbon pollution-free electricity and adopting zero-emission vehicles. These targets are detailed in the Federal Sustainability Plan. However, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rates U.S. climate policies as “Insufficient,” highlighting that current efforts fall short of meeting the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. According to CAT, the U.S. would need to reduce emissions by 62-65% below 2005 levels by 2030 to align with this target, surpassing its current commitments. Compounding this challenge, former President Donald Trump previously withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, and his return to office raises concerns that similar actions could be taken again, further undermining efforts to reduce CO₂ emissions.

The CAT rates the United States’ overall climate commitments as “Insufficient,”. While the U.S.’s NDC target against modeled domestic pathways is rated “Almost Sufficient” and aligns with a <2°C warming scenario, other aspects are lagging. Policies and actions are rated “Insufficient,” indicating they align with a <3°C warming scenario, and the NDC target against fair share responsibility is similarly insufficient. Climate finance is rated “Critically Insufficient,” pointing to major gaps in financial contributions to global climate initiatives. Additionally, the U.S.’s net-zero target for 2050 is rated “Average” in terms of comprehensiveness, and contributions from land use and forestry are deemed “Not Significant.” These findings emphasize the need for the U.S. to enhance climate policies and financial commitments to meet its climate goals.

Thus, while China, the European Union, and the United States have made varying levels of progress in addressing climate change, significant gaps remain in their ability to meet global climate targets. China’s approach demonstrates optimism with its early peak in CO₂ emissions and substantial investments in renewable energy, but its overall efforts remain highly insufficient to align with the Paris Agreement’s goals. The EU continues to lead in setting ambitious climate targets and has made steady progress over decades, but its implementation and financial contributions fall short of its lofty goals, leaving its 2030 targets uncertain. Meanwhile, the U.S. has set meaningful objectives, but insufficient climate financing undermine its potential to meet its commitments. The U.S. will most likely face a regression in environmental policy during the next four years with Donald Trump, a leader with a history of climate skepticism, returning to office. His previous withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and rollback of environmental regulations raise concerns that the U.S.’s climate ambitions could stall, undermining progress toward its 2030 and 2050 targets. Collectively, these major players must enhance ambition, accountability, and implementation to drive global progress. Additionally, the complexities of production versus consumption emissions, financial responsibility, and developmental priorities highlight the need for tailored approaches and global collaboration.