Event Recap C-Level Breakfast: China’s Property Market Outlook for 2026

We were delighted to launch our first C-Level Breakfast of the year in Shanghai, bringing together finance leaders Annie Tao (ING) and Arent Naber (FrieslandCampina China) for an insightful discussion on China’s real estate outlook for 2026.

A special thank you goes to James Macdonald (Savills Greater China) for providing valuable insights into a sector undergoing significant structural transformation.

The discussion highlighted continued pressure in the office market, where vacancy rates have reached 26.4% across major cities and rents have declined by 10.2% year-on-year. In contrast, the retail sector is showing more nuanced dynamics, with vacancy at 9.5% and rents decreasing by 2.2% year-on-year, while experiential formats and domestic consumption trends continue to gain traction. The logistics segment is also rebalancing, as rents have fallen by 17.4% year-on-year despite improving absorption and stabilizing vacancy rates. Meanwhile, residential markets are beginning to show early signs of recovery in top-tier cities, supported by policy easing and resilient demand in the luxury segment.

Overall, the conversation underscored a broader transition in China’s real estate sector, which is moving away from being a traditional growth engine toward a more sustainable, tenant-driven, and asset management-focused model. Recovery is expected to be gradual over the coming years.

Thank you to all participants for making this session a success.